Public
Service Announcement
Immediate
Release 3 April 2014Patrick Porgans, www.planetarysolutionaries.org
SACRAMENTO, CA
Water
officials’ and scientists’ claims that the Golden State is in the grips of an
epic 500 year drought is not supported by the facts. Government documents show back
in January that this year’s drought was not the worst in 500 years.
“We
are on track for having the worst drought in 500 years,” 500 years,” said B.
Lynn Ingram, Paleoclimatologist, professor of earth and planetary sciences at
the University of California, Berkeley. That
story was released on January 30.Although an effort was made to reach Ingram to
ascertain the scientific data to support her contention, she has yet to
respond.
Contact
was also made with NOAA’s World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, Colorado to ascertain quantifiable
data to validate Ingram’s assertion. Based upon a discussion with personnel
assigned to the Center for Paleoclimatology, there is not enough data to say
with certainty that this is the worst drought in 500 years.
Data
obtained from the California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) Public
Information Office indicate that, at best, the state may be experiencing the
fourth driest water year in recorded history. (A water-year is measured by the
Sacramento River Unimpaired runoff dating back to 1906 and, by definition,
begins on October 1 and ends on September 30 of the following year; currently,
we are in water year 2014.) DWR officials depend heavily on Sacramento River
watershed runoff to meet State Water Project demands.
In
DWR’s February 1 report , Bulletin 120, DWR officials’ forecasted water year
2014 for the Sacramento River Unimpaired Runoff at 6.1 million acre-feet (MAF).
One-acre foot of water contains 325,851 gallons of water. Critics point out
that when DWR’s forecast was made we were only 16 weeks into the water year.
However, in DWR’s March 1, 2014 report showed that this water year forecast at
6.2 MAF, stating it as the fourth driest on record. The March rains will require water officials to go back
to the drawing board, casting doubts on the motives and severity of this
drought.
Contrary
to Ingram’s and water officials forecast, public records show that the driest recorded
water year occurred in 1977 (5.1 million acre-feet (MAF), followed by 1924 (5.7
MAF), and 1931 (6.1 MAF); data extrapolated from a 2010 DWR report
According
to the record, the worst set of extended drought events occurred during
1929-1934, the 1976-1977 and 1987-1992 period, respectfully, according to DWR’s
Figure 1. The 1976-77 and 1987-1992 drought occurred post SWP construction, as
indicated in DWR’s graph, Figure 1, Comparison
of Previous Droughts.
.
Figure 1
Government Projects
Operate on Flawed Computer Models
The
facts contained in the public record do not support government officials and
scientists assertion that the Golden State is currently in the grips of an epic
500 years drought. Their comments are prefaced on tree rings and limited
Paleoclimatological information and computer-generated models.
The question is how accurate are models water
officials’ use for management and operation of the State Water Project (SWP).
Ironically, it is common knowledge that “All models
are wrong, some are useful,” according to an article published by Professor Jay Lund, UCD, quoting statistician George Box.
Dependence on tree-ring records have
intrinsic shortcomings, including divergence problems and proxies applied in the models. Furthermore, the
models failed to identify California’s worse drought of record in recent history
(post SWP), which occurred in the 1976-1977 water years.
“Every day this drought goes on we are going
to have to tighten
the screws on what people are doing” said Gov. Jerry Brown, who was
governor during the last major drought here, in 1976-77.
Although
California has experienced its share of notable droughts since 1906, officials
could not provide a drought contingency plan, when requested last month; instead
they are holding public workshop to get the peoples input on what to do about
the drought.
Officials made it clear that there is
no universal definition of when a drought begins or ends. Drought is a gradual
phenomenon, according to DWR.
Figure 2
Figure 1 and Figure 2 failed to list the driest individual water years, 1977 (5.1 million acre-feet (MAF), 1924 (5.7 MAF), 1931 (6.1 MAF), respectfully. however, the recent series of storms experienced in March may require DWR to amend that forecast. Figure 4 does not include the 1987-92 droughts, which was comparable to the six-year drought event that occurred during the 1929-1934 six-year droughts, as shown in Figure 1.
Sacramento River Unimpaired Runoff
Values in Figure 2 represent the estimated unimpaired flow for the Sacramento Valley floor and the minor streams from the Stony Creek drainage area to the Cache Creek drainage area, from the Cache Creek drainage area to the mouth of the Sacramento River, and from the Feather River drainage area to the American River drainage area.
Figure 3
Monthly Average Runoff of Sacramento River
Figure 3, provides the average runoff for the Sacramento River system, which illustrates that March, April, and May as three of the five highest months that runoff occurred historically. All the numbers are in millions of acre-feet of water.
Figure 4, indicates the water year in precipitation, when
comparing the severity of historical drought. Critics point out that this is
where DWR officials began to compare apples with oranges, as it is common
knowledge in the water world water years are measured in acre-feet.
Cloud of Doubt Rising as to the Severity of the Drought
In
the first year of the 1976-77 droughts, DWR officials delivered 600,000
acre-feet of water, stored at the SWP’s Oroville reservoir, to agricultural
contractors in Kern County for $2.95 delivered, even though it was warned that
was not a prudent management decision.
During
the 1987-92 droughts, DWR delivered record-breaking amounts of water to its
contractors in central and southern California in the first four years, playing
the odds that the drought would not continue. DWR officials water management
and delivery practices exacerbated the severity of the droughts.
DWR officials responded to the dry conditions
by exporting and delivering significant amounts of water to SWP contractors; i.e.,
in 2010 it delivered 2.44 million-acre feet (MAF), in 2011, 3.55MAF, and in
2012, 2.84 MAF.
In light of all the recorded data
questions are being raised as to the motive behind Gov. Brown’s, water
officials' and Ingram’s claim that this is the worst drought in 500 years.
Critics claim that it is all about promoting more water development and bilking the
public out of hundreds of millions of dollars for drought relief giveaway
grants, the majority of those funds is borrowed money that is given to some of
the biggest water districts and landowners in the state. Back during the
2007-2009 “drought" DWR held grant giveaway meetings at the Irvine RanchWater District’s Duck Club.
Figure 4
Drought
Proclamation Opens Floodgate Releasing $870 Million in Public Funds
DWR
personnel claim that this is the third dry year in a row, , includes water year
2012, 2013, and 2014, yet it was not until mid-January that California Governor
Jerry Brown issued a Proclamation ,
declaring the drought as a State of
Emergency.
“With
California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state
history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today [January 17] proclaimed a State of Emergency and
directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these
drought conditions.”
Corporate
media ran with the “500-year drought” story, heightening public fears and
uncertainties, claiming that the drought will devastate California’s $44.7
billion agricultural industry and result in massive farm-related
jobs losses, higher unemployment rates, rise in food
prices, relaxation of water quality standards and environmental protections..
The
situation apparently was so bad that President Obama flew in on Air Force One
to Fresno and observed the devastation personally and immediately pledged $183million
from existing federal funds for drought relief programs in California.
Meanwhile,
Gov. Brown’s Administration opened the floodgates and is doling out $687million in
drought relief grants using borrowed money that will ultimately cost state
taxpayers in excess of $1 billion in new debt to offset the devastation.
The
largest share of the drought relief package - $549 million - comes from
accelerated spending of General Obligation (G.O.) bond money voters previously
approved in two ballot propositions.
"This
legislation (appropriating drought relief funds) marks a crucial step - but
Californians must continue to take every action possible to conserve
water," Brown, a Democrat, said in a statement.
As
of late, government officials are holding hearings laying out plans for a new
$4 billion reservoir, when the Golden State is already inundated with $74.6
billion in G.O. bond debt, of
which $19.6 billion was expended on water- and drought-related give away
grants.
According
to the state treasurer, Bill Lockyer, it cost $2 for every dollar borrowed
using G.O. bonds. The money to repay the bonds comes from the state’s
heretofore deficit-ridden General Fund.
Ironically,
California agriculture experienced a nearly three percent increase in the sales
value of its products in 2012. The state’s 80,500 farms and ranches received a
record $44.7 billion for their output in 2012, up from $43.3 billion in 2011
and $37.9 billion during 2010, according to the latest published government
reports.
Almond acreage during the period of 2009
through 2012 increased from 720,000 acres to 780,000 acres in 2012; averaging to
20,000
acres a decade.. Between 1995 and 2010,
almond acreage expanded from 440,000 to 870,000 acres in 2010; increasing cash
receipts to growers from $800 million to more than $4 billion, respectively.
Using
a conservative average of 3.4 acre-feet of water per acre to grow almonds
indicate that the demand on California’s developed water supply and groundwater
would have increased by about 1.36 million acre-feet of water.
The
amount of water required to irrigate just the 870,000 acres of almonds planted
would require an estimated 2.9 MAF of water that is about 800,000 acre-feet
more than the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California provides
annually to 18 million urban water users in its service area.
Essentially,
DWR and SWP agricultural contractors gambled on the odds that even if the drought
continued, they would get the unsuspecting public to bail them out by issuing
G.O. bonds.
Because
DWR has not produced all of the pertinent information, it is difficult to
account for the extent and gravity of this drought. Currently, Planetary
Solutionaries (PS) is conducting a forensic accounting of the “management” of
the SWP going back to the worst drought experienced since the SWP became
operable. PS’ findings will be continued in Part two of this series. ###
Part
Two: Government officials dump floodwater during the “Epic 500-year Drought
In the midst of a “500-year drought” it is
difficult to fathom why California water officials would dump million gallons
of “floodwaters” out of State Water Project (SWP) reservoirs in southern
California, while drought police issue warning letters, and stiff fines to
homeowners in the water-rich north state for watering lawns and washing cars.
To be continued…
Previous drought stories:
Duck club link http://www.california%20progressreport.com/site/budget-deficits-bond-debt-billionaires-brown-family-and-big-profits
About the Author: Patrick Porgans completed 75-fact finding volumes on water- and drought-related issues in the Western United States. As a Forensic Accountant, he conducted 15 volumes that assessed every major aspect of the California State Water Project (SWP). Those reports were the subject of legislative hearings that brought to light the intrinsic shortcomings of the Project and the $10s of billions of dollars in cost overruns that have been paid for by the taxpayers that the law requires be repaid by SWP contractors. You can view his work at www.planetarysolutionaries.org or go to www.linkedin.com/in/patrickporgans/
About the Author: Patrick Porgans completed 75-fact finding volumes on water- and drought-related issues in the Western United States. As a Forensic Accountant, he conducted 15 volumes that assessed every major aspect of the California State Water Project (SWP). Those reports were the subject of legislative hearings that brought to light the intrinsic shortcomings of the Project and the $10s of billions of dollars in cost overruns that have been paid for by the taxpayers that the law requires be repaid by SWP contractors. You can view his work at www.planetarysolutionaries.org or go to www.linkedin.com/in/patrickporgans/
